Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

An HST/COS legacy survey of intervening SiIII absorption in the extended gaseous halos of low-redshift galaxies

Doubly ionized silicon (SiIII) is a powerful tracer of diffuse ionized gas inside and outside of galaxies. It can be observed in the local Universe in ultraviolet (UV) absorption against bright extragalactic background sources. We here present an extensive study of intervening SiIII-selected absorbers and their relation to the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of galaxies at low redshift (z<=0.1), based on the analysis of UV absorption spectra along 303 extragalactic lines of sight obtained with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Along a total redshift path of Dz=24 we identify 69 intervening SiIII systems that all show associated absorption from other low and high ions. We derive a bias-corrected number density of dN/dz(SiIII)=2.5 for absorbers with column densities log N(SiIII)>12.2. We develop a geometrical model for the absorption-cross section of the CGM around the local galaxy population and find excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observations. We further compare redshifts and positions of the absorbers with that of ~64,000 galaxies using archival galaxy-survey data. For the majority of the absorbers we identify possible host galaxies within 300 km/s of the absorbers and derive impact parameters rho<200 kpc, demonstrating that the spatial distributions of SiIII absorbers and galaxies are highly correlated. Our study indicates that the majority of SiIII-selected absorbers in our sample trace the CGM of nearby galaxies within their virial radii at a typical covering fraction of ~70 per cent. From a detailed ionization model we estimate that diffuse gas in the CGM around galaxies, as traced by SiIII, contains substantially more baryonic mass than their neutral interstellar medium.Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures; final version accepted for publication in A&

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both

Controlled lasing from active optomechanical resonators

Planar microcavities with distributed Bragg reflectors (DBRs) host, besides confined optical modes, also mechanical resonances due to stop bands in the phonon dispersion relation of the DBRs. These resonances have frequencies in the sub-terahertz (10E10-10E11 Hz) range with quality factors exceeding 1000. The interaction of photons and phonons in such optomechanical systems can be drastically enhanced, opening a new route toward manipulation of light. Here we implemented active semiconducting layers into the microcavity to obtain a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL). Thereby three resonant excitations -photons, phonons, and electrons- can interact strongly with each other providing control of the VCSEL laser emission: a picosecond strain pulse injected into the VCSEL excites long-living mechanical resonances therein. As a result, modulation of the lasing intensity at frequencies up to 40 GHz is observed. From these findings prospective applications such as THz laser control and stimulated phonon emission may emerge

Erenumab in chronic migraine: Patient-reported outcomes in a randomized double-blind study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of erenumab, a human monoclonal antibody targeting the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor, on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), headache impact, and disability in patients with chronic migraine (CM). METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 667 adults with CM were randomized (3:2:2) to placebo or erenumab (70 or 140 mg monthly). Exploratory endpoints included migraine-specific HRQoL (Migraine-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire [MSQ]), headache impact (Headache Impact Test-6 [HIT-6]), migraine-related disability (Migraine Disability Assessment [MIDAS] test), and pain interference (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS] Pain Interference Scale short form 6b). RESULTS: Improvements were observed for all endpoints in both erenumab groups at month 3, with greater changes relative to placebo observed at month 1 for many outcomes. All 3 MSQ domains were improved from baseline with treatment differences for both doses exceeding minimally important differences established for MSQ-role function-restrictive (≥3.2) and MSQ-emotional functioning (≥7.5) and for MSQ-role function-preventive (≥4.5) for erenumab 140 mg. Changes from baseline in HIT-6 scores at month 3 were -5.6 for both doses vs -3.1 for placebo. MIDAS scores at month 3 improved by -19.4 days for 70 mg and -19.8 days for 140 mg vs -7.5 days for placebo. Individual-level minimally important difference was achieved by larger proportions of erenumab-treated participants than placebo for all MSQ domains and HIT-6. Lower proportions of erenumab-treated participants had MIDAS scores of severe (≥21) or very severe (≥41) or PROMIS scores ≥60 at month 3. CONCLUSIONS: Erenumab-treated patients with CM experienced clinically relevant improvements across a broad range of patient-reported outcomes. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02066415. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that for patients with CM, erenumab treatment improves HRQoL, headache impact, and disability

Giant increase in the metal-enhanced fluorescence of organic molecules in nanoporous alumina templates and large molecule-specific red/blue shift of the fluorescence peak

The fluorescence of organic fluorophore molecules is enhanced when they are placed in contact with certain metals (Al, Ag, Cu, Au, etc.) whose surface plasmon waves couple into the radiative modes of the molecules and increase the radiative efficiency. Here, we report a hitherto unknown size dependence of this metal enhanced fluorescence (MEF) effect in the nanoscale. When the molecules are deposited in nanoporous anodic alumina films with exposed aluminum at the bottom of the pores, they form organic nanowires standing on aluminum nanoparticles whose plasmon waves have much larger amplitudes. This increases the MEF strongly, resulting in several orders of magnitude increase in the fluorescence intensity of the organic fluorophores. The increase in intensity shows an inverse super-linear dependence on nanowire diameter because the nanowires also act as plasmonic 'waveguides' that concentrate the plasmons and increase the coupling of the plasmons with the radiative modes of the molecules. Furthermore, if the nanoporous template housing the nanowires has built-in electric fields due to space charges, a strong molecule-specific red- or blue-shift is induced in the fluorescence peak owing to a renormalization of the dipole moment of the molecule. This can be exploited to detect minute amounts of target molecules in a mixture using their optical signature (fluorescence) despite the presence of confounding background signals. It can result in a unique new technology for bio- and chemical-sensing

Time course of salivary protein responses to cranberry-derived polyphenol exposure as a function of PROP taster status

Astringency is a complex oral sensation, commonly experienced when dietary polyphenols interact with salivary proteins. Most astringent stimuli alter protein levels, which then require time to be replenished. Although it is standard practice in astringency research to provide breaks in between stimuli, there is limited consensus over the amount of time needed to restore the oral environment to baseline levels. Here we examined salivary protein levels after exposure to 20 mL of a model stimulus (cranberry polyphenol extract, 0.75 g/L CPE) or unsweetened cranberry juice (CJ), over a 10 min period. Whole saliva from healthy subjects (n = 60) was collected at baseline and after 5 and 10 min following either stimulus. Five families of proteins: basic proline-rich proteins (bPRPs); acidic proline-rich proteins (aPRPs); histatins; statherin; and S-type cystatins, were analyzed in whole saliva via HPLC-low resolution-ESI-IT-MS, using the area of the extracted ion current (XIC) peaks. Amylase was quantified via immunoblotting. In comparison to baseline (resting), both stimuli led to a rise in levels of aPRPs (p &lt; 0.000) at 5 min which remained elevated at 10 min after stimulation. Additionally, an interaction of PROP taster status and time was observed, wherein super-tasters had higher levels of amylase in comparison to non-tasters after stimulation with CJ at both timepoints (p = 0.014–0.000). Further, male super-tasters had higher levels of bPRPs at 5 min after stimulation with both CJ and CPE (p = 0.015–0.007) in comparison to baseline. These data provide novel findings of interindividual differences in the salivary proteome that may influence the development of astringency and that help inform the design of sensory experiments of astringency